According to Miles Deutscher, crypto could be entering its first 5-year cycle, with business cycle theory pointing to a market top in 2026, implying a longer-than-usual risk window versus the traditional 4-year halving rhythm. source: Miles Deutscher on X, Jan 19, 2026. For trading, this framework shifts peak expectations toward 2026, guiding longer holding horizons and staggered profit-taking and rotation timing across majors like BTC and ETH relative to a 4-year template. source: Miles Deutscher on X, Jan 19, 2026.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, the widely referenced Bitcoin BTC four-year halving cycle may be misleading, and he released a new video update to reassess whether the cycle still exists and what the setup into 2026 could mean for traders (source: Michaël van de Poppe on X, Nov 13, 2025, linking to a YouTube update). His post explicitly asks whether the 4-year cycle is still alive, whether it exists at all, and what 2026 might bring, signaling caution for cycle-based timing strategies and encouraging traders to review his analysis before positioning (source: Michaël van de Poppe on X, Nov 13, 2025).